Discussion Optimal Betting Strategy

I shall conquer NUF Blackjack. Just you wait @justabot, I'm coming for every dollar you own.

I'm going to try and discuss a strategy for playing blackjack.

In reality, there's something called the Kelly Criterion; this is the mathematically proven strategy for sports betting. It maximises the log of the expected utility, and a proof exists using calculus that no essentially different strategy is superior to it.

Unfortunately, we bet before the game starts as such we can't use the Kelly criterion. I can go ahead and talk about some theory, but I'll first test something then get back here.

For now.

A = 1 || 11 {*4}
2 = {*4}
3 = {*4}
4 = {*4}
5 = {*4}
6 = {*4}
7 = {*4}
8 = {*4}
9 = {*4}
10 = {*16}

There are many styles of decision making. I'm cognisant of Naive Method, Maximum Likelihood, and Bayesian Decision making.

The particular method I'll use is left to my intuition. I may use other methods and techniques as well.

Bot rules
If hand less than 17, hit. Otherwise, stay.

I'll edit this post with some strategies based on Probability Theory.

Feel free to comment and make suggestions.

 

I tried card counting already... It did not work.

For pre hand bets only, that's really the only valid betting strategy to use. The hitting strategy involves complex probability analysis based on the showing cards of both sides... You could give that a shot. If I remember right, though, it's already solved. Somewhere.

 

Gotta ask @GonZ555 the specialist for his insight. Also gotta ask @Smakemdown , she kinda wrecked the game on her first day and claimed winnings around of +7k, well she became greedy and dropped down to 4th place the same day I think

 

I have a nagging feeling @justabot skews the probabilities.

 

you are sad....

 

Bet high then pray to all the gods you know

 

Personally don't bet high repeatedly or look at your winnings and think if its worth it or something..

 

Yeah, I noticed after getting the exact same hand twice in a row.

Though I guess it should have been obvious considering it's a code...

 

Bayesian, maximum likelihood? Ack! Don't remind me of MinMaxing or SMART methods!!

Spoiler: Serious

I just split the game part into two:
Player's turn, and bot's turn.
Player target:

1. Dont get bust!
2. Make as high of a hand as possible

Bot:

1. If you see the open card is 6 or lower, bot will definitely hit(and hopefully get bust)

Other than that, i counted the probability..
Like when your card total point is 11 or lower, you have 100% chance of not going bust when you hit.
<=11 (100%)
12 (69%)
13 (61%)
14 (53%)
------i generally stopped hitting if it's above 14------
15 (46%)
16 (38%)
17 (30%)
18 (23%)
19 (15%)
20 (7%)

 

Bet everything in go, and let God decide the outcome.

 

You sir are over thinking this. There's only one possible option when betting. And that's yolo.

 

Actually the best strategy is to kill the dealer, and rob him of all his money.

 

I'll determine that. If I make winnings significantly less than expected, I think I'll quit.

 

Just don't be greedy, this is really important.
If you happen to get a losing streak do not continue Blackjack, the bot will likely produce the results that make you lose every game. Tsk tsk justabot took my beautiful 4k nuffies within 1 go. :'(

PS: Exterminate the dealer's nine generations and the dealer will give you money. >.-

 

Why not just call @justabot?
Or better yet, interrogate him. I heard he was beaten daily on pinata game, possibly related to salty loser on blackjack

 

What do you think of calculating the expected value of the bot's hand and using it to anticipate whether it hits or stays, and whether you should.

 

And he gives free nuffies there too
25 nuffies on pinata game,
50 nuffies on blackjack game

 

Theres no strategy on blackjacks the dealer had two blacksjacks ( A + Royal cards) in a row..

-Butthurt Raged Loser Doge

 

I disagree with stopping based simply on your probability of busting.

A bust is a guaranteed loss yes, but say you have 15, and you see the dealer's hand is something less than 6 and one other number.

He is definitely hitting. If you stay, you lose unless he busts. Determining whether you win, is simply calculating whether the dealer's probability of busting is greater than yours. If it's less, hit.

You might lose if you do. However, you will most probably lose if you don't. Hitting as a higher expected value, and works for Maximum likelihood.