Let's say an item has 1% drop rate, how many times minimum should I trigger the treasure box to get the item? Are there any formula for this problem?
First, become one of those people who tells people every time you get a rare drop. Wait for someone to complain he's tried 200 times and didn't get it, then try it yourself. You will get it in one try.
I would just keep trying. its simply farming? but i assume it will take more than 100 tries for a 1% drop rate
No, I think yours is the correct one, Poisson distribution would be the answer of given X number of trial, what is the expected number of successful loots
As someone, and like everyone else, that was screwed and blessed by RNGesus, I will say.......random. Can't trust math formula or something like that with % rewards like treasure boxes or gacha or drop rate or something. Random people might spend their entire time farming in any way but with nothing, then there is that one guy that either brag or the system announce that he got it in 1 try.
Have a massive wallet. Beats all other formulas. Don't have to worry about drop rates when you can just buy more lootboxes.
I hate RNG, there are a few times where I oneshot a SSR and most of the times I get mats and Ns and Rs.
The issue is more that the actual numbers don't mean anything because you are a single sample, which means you are very very likely to not get the average. If you play monster hunter you quickly learn this the hard way. People in that game meme about a desire sensor for a reason...
you might get it on the first try, or you might never be able to get it. it is because the 1% chance drop is not cumulative to how many you open it. each box gets 1% chance and is independent of each other. your first box is 1%, your second one is 1% and your 100th one is also 1%. the 1% is calculated the moment you open the box and is not affected by the previous or subsequent opening of it.
mmm does the rate accumulated or is reset with each pull? because if it doesn't accumulate then every time you pull you have the same chance.
People like to argue about probability, a fun example that stumps people is the monty hall problem, game show with 3 doors, contestant picks a door and the host opens another door to show that it is a fail, do you stay on your door or pick the other unopened door, you should always pick the other door because probability dictates it has a 2/3 chance of being right, because when you made your choice you had 2/3 chance of being wrong so there is 2/3 chance the unopened door is the right one. Probability doesn't accumulate, however the odds that you fail a dice roll multiple times in a row is less then failing it on each attempt.
it's all about luck , gambling, you may get it first time or you may never get it until you lose all money mathematicians could make complicated calculations to show how smart they are, they are based on the fact that out of a 1000, you draw 10 and it remains 990, but here in the draw system, you draw 10 out of 1000, it remains 1000, with the high possibility of getting many duplicate of the same low rarity items. The only thing that matter is that you get the items you want
No, wait, that's still wrong, Poisson distribution would be, Given a number of trials, what is the probability of the number of success being S
Which is already irrelevant since you are in the branch where you did not pick a fail, meaning your odds already adjusted. It makes no difference.
To be fair, unless it removes your actual winnings from the loot list ie. 100> 99> 98 and so on until you get to 1 possible result and that would be the best item, there's no actual way of guaranteeing you getting any specific item. Ever. Theoretically, you could have 90% chance to get something specific but if RNGesus hates you, you could try a lot of times and never get it. Also theoretically you could have 1% chance to get something and get it 5 times in a row without cheating, but expecting that ...
if you want to keep it simple and say "after how many pulls do i have 99% probability to get this item?" it would be 0.99=x*(0.01*0.99^(x-1)) i don't feel like working this out in the morning so it's easier to just fill in the x as your number of planned tries for example 'what are my odds if i pull 60 times?" 60*0.01*0.99^59=0.3316 so it's 33.16%
Loot rate. If you want it/need it you will have to spend a long time farming it. If you just don't care or don't want it you'll get it in a few tries if not all at once. Greed sensor is real.