Discussion How long until asteroid mining starts?

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by UnGrave, Jun 20, 2020.

  1. UnGrave

    UnGrave ななひ~^^

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    4,072
    Likes Received:
    12,832
    Reading List:
    Link
    I was thinking about all the metal existing in the asteroids all around our solar system, and close to earths orbit, and began to wonder how long it will be before we get a cheap enough model for escaping the earth's gravity to actually start industrial mining and refining of the resources in space. I've long been dreaming of a time when we can start industrializing space, having massive factories floating about in the microgravity regions of the solar system, sending valuable products down to earth on a mass scale, and basically making humanity 100x more advanced than we currently are.

    What do you expect the timeline will be for humanity to start mining in space?
     
  2. Walter vi Britannia

    Walter vi Britannia Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2018
    Messages:
    2,718
    Likes Received:
    2,731
    Reading List:
    Link
    I don't think that would be possible until you find a way to stop the asteroids from spinning around an axis because of the tennis racket theorem. Getting a rocket to land on an asteroid in not even close to the biggest challenge that you'll face.
     
  3. UnGrave

    UnGrave ななひ~^^

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    4,072
    Likes Received:
    12,832
    Reading List:
    Link
    I thought that some of them were spinning fairly slowly, so you'd at least be able to land on those ones. Never been to space or really looked too closely at asteroid information to figure that out though... I suppose we'd need to become a lot more familiar with working in deeper space first before starting anything that isn't research-oriented.
     
  4. Cutter Masterson

    Cutter Masterson Well-Known Super-Soldier

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2015
    Messages:
    5,676
    Likes Received:
    8,708
    Reading List:
    Link
    There are so many variables to overcome. It is astronomical (pun intended).
    There are really only two options to get out of the gravity well. One is boosting. Which is still extremely expensive. So that’s not cost effective until we have a better system. Even with Tesla leading the way. The second option is a space elevator. The tallest building in the world is about 2,700+ feet. While you need a distance of 35,000+ feet. So there are still many challenges to overcome before you can even start mining.
    Of course doing anything in space will require force and counter force. Either stabilizing a astoride or even mining it will need counter force.
    Personally I like the mirror mining idea best. Get an astoride and fire sunlight from mirrors. Make it spin in one direction (using sunlight to push the astoride like a solar sail). Than melt it and have the heavier materials start centrifuges it self to the outer skin. When it start to spread out. Start cutting chucks out. You’ll get your smeltering and mining in one go. Plus this would be a lot more cheaper than using rockets. Also it’s a renewable resource and that is sunlight.
    I read about it from a writer by the name of John Ringo.
     
    anon and UnGrave like this.
  5. Tilgarial

    Tilgarial [Chaos Tiger] [Paradox] [ded][Houseplant]

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2018
    Messages:
    1,643
    Likes Received:
    41,425
    Reading List:
    Link
    There's ways around that.
    Like sending them to the moon or mars (potentially allowing terrorists to kill earth via asteroid bombardement) and simply mining the asteroid graveyard that'd create.


    There's a few variables that affect this:

    A) The obvious, our technological ability to access these asteroids in the first place. if we cant get there reasonably, we arent going to either

    B) (stolen from the guy above) Our technological/scientific ability to actually harvest these things

    C) Our current access to other sources, be it moon, mars or earth (the first two will most likely be mined before asteroids, or at least the moon will)
    Reasoning is simple: if we have cheaper access to the same materials, capitalism means we will be doing the cheaper way.
    so as long as there's a reasonably satisfactory mining operation possible on earth, it's unlikely to happen. after we get through all mines, I assume we'll first go through a time of recycling before we turn to outer space.

    D) The continued existence of humanity
    We cant mine outer space if there is nobod to mine outer space

    E) lots of things i probably didnt think of


    Main point is, as long as there's more money on earth, it wont be gotten from somewhere else
     
    Nightow1 and UnGrave like this.
  6. Hacalyhd

    Hacalyhd Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2016
    Messages:
    961
    Likes Received:
    1,176
    Reading List:
    Link
    Aside from landing on the asteroid, it also has to be cheaper AND more reliable than regular mining or recycling.

    I assume asteroid mining will only become a thing after a certain amount of people start living in space - aka after we leave the solar system.
    Before that, mining the planets and/or their moons as well as recycling would probably be the main way to generate ressources.
     
    Miserys_End and UnGrave like this.
  7. Matteus

    Matteus [潜んでいる] [Com Fome]

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2018
    Messages:
    382
    Likes Received:
    1,072
    Reading List:
    Link
  8. SXIIIS

    SXIIIS Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2017
    Messages:
    3
    Likes Received:
    3
    Reading List:
    Link
    We'll need appropriate space infrastructure to process mined resources into usable material first (most likely it'll be built at the same time as 1st mining op). I predict it'll take off to build orbital infrastructure around Mars since ground mining wont be enough and sending stuff from Earth/moon will cost too much.
     
    UnGrave likes this.
  9. MangoGuy

    MangoGuy Rambling Mango

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2016
    Messages:
    7,625
    Likes Received:
    8,697
    Reading List:
    Link
    I doubt it will ever take off. The reason being that asteroids don't actually have enough good stuff to warrant the extremely costly process of mining them. Remember that it's not just about sending a device to it and tinkering with it. You also have to carry back the heavy stuff back. And safely land. This is furiously expensive, in exchange for very little. Unless we come across diamond asteroids or stuff like that, we shouldn't even consider this. Most asteroids are actually not that giant in size. And out of the remaining, those having what we need are even fewer.
     
    Nightow1 likes this.
  10. UnGrave

    UnGrave ななひ~^^

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    4,072
    Likes Received:
    12,832
    Reading List:
    Link
    Pretty sure I read an article about steroids with large amounts of platinum and other precious metals on them at some point.
     
    Cutter Masterson likes this.
  11. king cooly

    king cooly Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2017
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    76
    Reading List:
    Link
    I think you should look at it the other way:
    We will start looking for minerals in space as a viable source once the minerals on earth become too scarce or expensive which probably won't happen for a while.

    Also since most metals can be recycled it'll probably still be a long while before anything happens.
     
  12. vancenick

    vancenick Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    380
    Likes Received:
    279
    Reading List:
    Link
    Most of the really valuable ones are out in the Kuiper belt the only currently feasible asteroids to mine are the in system ones
     
    AncientFang and UnGrave like this.
  13. ahoppy

    ahoppy Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2016
    Messages:
    48
    Likes Received:
    12
    Reading List:
    Link
    Yes the mirror powered mining idea is fun but as he pointed out you need several leaps in technology to make it practical although Ringo made it more complicated than it had to be because his was also a weapon system.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2020
  14. Cutter Masterson

    Cutter Masterson Well-Known Super-Soldier

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2015
    Messages:
    5,676
    Likes Received:
    8,708
    Reading List:
    Link
    You are correct. Most of the heavier elements we mine on earth comes from meteorite landings.
     
    UnGrave likes this.
  15. Cutter Masterson

    Cutter Masterson Well-Known Super-Soldier

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2015
    Messages:
    5,676
    Likes Received:
    8,708
    Reading List:
    Link
    While the best and most valuable are indeed in the belt. What’s the difference between the two. Besides a little bit more effort. I mean the biggest challenges were overcome. All the rest is just the finer details.
     
    White Empress likes this.
  16. White Empress

    White Empress Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2017
    Messages:
    96
    Likes Received:
    56
    Reading List:
    Link
    When I read a book that mentioned something similar to the feasibility of asteroid mining, it said something like the main incentive for it would be rare earth metals (that would be in an increasing demand due to its role in developing technology ex circuit boards)
     
  17. Miserys_End

    Miserys_End 「Lv1 Pretend Person」I'm the preson i pretend to be

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2017
    Messages:
    4,011
    Likes Received:
    5,928
    Reading List:
    Link
    I have to agree with this. Nothing will get off the ground if there isnt a permanent settlement in space(no I dont count the space station as such). It would need to have a stable environment where we could build the tools needed to build the equipment to start such an endeavor.

    Once we figure out how to make cost effective artificial gravity plates or get a few hamster wheels spinning, we can start moving people up and get them building things. Until then we are just stuck on the ground dreaming of the stars.
     
    Cutter Masterson and UnGrave like this.
  18. Cutter Masterson

    Cutter Masterson Well-Known Super-Soldier

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2015
    Messages:
    5,676
    Likes Received:
    8,708
    Reading List:
    Link
    Well, this is all theoretical. But my WAG tells me that while Earth maybe the easiest to mine. I’d like to argue about the merits of astoride mining.
    No Environmental Protection to worry about. That could also apply to Mars and the Moon.
    Also the amount of materials you could mine in space. Is on a magnitude undreamed of by our standards of today.
    If I had to choose between mining on Earth or an astoride. With all the equipment I would need. I’d choose astoride mining. It just seems less hassle to me.
     
    Nightow1 likes this.
  19. Teadragon

    Teadragon Book Wyrm

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Messages:
    551
    Likes Received:
    613
    Reading List:
    Link
    This part is not a problem. In fact, we have ALREADY landed on an asteroid without issue. It is just a matter of matching velocities. https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_265.html

    .
    Asteroids can contain every element the Earth has. However the Earth is differentiated the same way Italian salad dressing differentiates. Light stuff floats to the top, and heavy stuff sinks to the bottom (where the bottom is the center of the Earth and the top is the crust). Most of our gold, platinum, iron, etc are in the center of the Earth. Same is true for differentiated asteroids. Only asteroids collide and break apart occasionally, so it is possible to find asteroid chunks made entirely of heavy(rare) minerals.

    The problem is not that asteroids have too little of the ‘good stuff’ but that they have too much. One asteroid could potentially collapse the rare mineral market on Earth.

    Yet one of the primary things that asteroid mining companies want to mine is actually water. Pure water, not salt water, is thought to be worth enough for all the trouble of asteroid mining.

    Actually the Kuiper Belt Objects have the exact same materials as asteroids, with the addition of ‘ices’ such as lots more water, methane, and ammonia.


    Overall, there are a LOT of asteroid mining companies right now, working out the practical methods to actually do the mining. They at least, predict results in the next few decades.
     
  20. Nightow1

    Nightow1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2019
    Messages:
    2,494
    Likes Received:
    2,992
    Reading List:
    Link
    Well said. I've met people that bought in on the SpaceX craze that Elon Musk is going to be the richest man in the Solar system because he's now going to mine asteroids. These people don't see the difference between launching something into space and mining something in space are massively different. One we have been doing since the 60s, with rather mediocre results, the other is something totally new never done before and insanely difficult. They don't follow each other.

    As for mining, to actually harvest the thing properly, we need to bring the asteroid to a resting orbit and when you're talking astronomical speeds and distances, the cost and difficulty literally becomes astronomical.
     
    Cutter Masterson likes this.