Between a 20% accuracy and 80% accuracy, who's more likely to hit the mark? The 80% accuracy. Yet some people are born with only 20% accuracy or less. But accuracy is something that can be improved. How? By shooting more shots and gaining more exp. Not only does gaining exp mean increasing accuracy, but even without it, 1 in 5 shots is bound to hit the mark, more so with more shots. edit: feel free to disagree, I still don't 100% believe in this, but I figured this way of seeing it at least made more sense than just saying "if you work hard, you'll succeed" edit2: I'm enjoying these discussions (so far they don't seem like they'll turn into arguments), but I wish I was better at words, then I could communicate my thoughts more clearly
Well, you can also take into account that by being able to take in the opportunity that luck provides is skillful. But Chu, you also got to take into account that recoil is a thing when shooting, the more you shoot the less accurate you're going to be as you have to adjust or readjust your aim and accuracy to fire again and if you're in a hurry you'll probably miss a majority. Though I do agree that experience is key here, the more experience one have the more skillful you'll be.
No, skill is part of luck. Cause skill is a factor of talent and effort. And it's a matter of luck if you are born with the talent and perseverance to polish that skill. Because end of the day, if you don't have the talent, you will hit a wall you can never pass no matter how much you improve.
that's only in one round~ replay the level the next day, and the next~ every missed shot is just exp points until you're a high enough level to never miss~
Read this and you will likely feel that luck is also a skill. Let's use the lottery as a real world example: The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are 1 in 292.2 million. Regardless of the unfavorable odds, some people still occasionally win. If you are the one who wins, that means that your method (random picks, always picking the same, etc.), was luckily successful this time.
Even people born with talent will hit a wall. But if someone else has already passed that wall, that means it's possible to get past it. Maybe you can't pass it, or maybe you can. Either way, it's not like you have anything to gain by not trying, and on the off-chance you do manage to surpass it, you'll be all the better for it. I don't know where I heard it, but I think I once heard a saying that all the skill in the world is worthless to one lucky shot. I think, though, that taking more shots is essential to getting that lucky shot~
Taking more shots is using the law of large numbers to take advantage of the existing probability. That is no longer luck, but statistics. Your theoretical probability of rolling a '6' on a d6 are 1/6 or 16.67%. If you roll the die only once and did not get a '6', your experimental probability of getting a '6' is 0/1 or 0%. That means you got unlucky, but by repeatedly rolling numerous times, you will find that the value of the experimental probability will approach that of the theoretical. Also, that quote "all the skill in the world is worthless to one lucky shot", is basically saying "sometimes, shit happens". It's not meant to outright deny the effectiveness of skill.
luck is talent, you born with it thats all~ skill is ability you have, you may born with it or gain it via other method usually learn and practice~ based on that yes luck is part of skill~ you can increase accuracy by practice~ the accuracy mean closer to target~ practicing accuracy you will gain precision, it mean how often you get accuracy~ for short term accuracy is good but long term this cat prefer precision~
Eh? Statistics is just the mathematical representation of luck. In theory, I can get a 6 on a d6 once every 6 rolls, so if I roll and don't get a 6, that's unlucky. But if I roll again and again, my luck will eventually approach that one in six rolls.
But you also have to take into account other scenarios, gaining experience in the whole skill tree of shooting instead of one scenario. And if we look at it like this, if we roll 2d6 it's 1/36 chance to get two 6s. The more quantity the more variable, theoretics is different from reality. The more you have to do the lower your chances unless you built up for it.
I think you may have expanded a bit more than I meant to on the allegory. The goal is not to become better at shooting. The goal is to increase the likelihood of hitting that one shot, in just one round. Consistently hitting that shot more often in more rounds will definitely take more factors, but if it's just one shot, shooting over and over again will make the desired result more and more likely.
Reliance on theoretics at skill level. If IT's only one shot and you ONLY have ONE chance to hit it. Then it is entirely dependent on your skill level. If it's 5% then it's 1/20. If it's 10% then it's 1/10. If it's 20% then it's 1/5. and so on and so on. The chance is there but it will be unlikely unless your skill is high enough to make it, I place the hurdle at a 1/2 chance; 50%.
and the more you raise your skill level, the higher the percentage chance is~ your luck increases as your skill does
What I was doing was making me rethink on this thread. If someone were to just target practice one target shooting one bullet at it everyday with a 1 in 5 chance, mental training would be set in due to putting in the effort and thinking about it. It would also involve all seasons if it were outside and would bring something new to something so monotonous. Funny thing is, when I play games when I try training for them to do tasks in them efficiently, I tend to repeat and retry them over and over and over and over again with breaks in between so I can think about it and do better. Looking at the scenario over and over again to see what I could do better. Which led me to think that this is basically doing a smaller version of the one-off daily practice. What I may do may have a shorter interval but practice makes perfect. Currently, I'm trying to speedrun Katana Zero, which has to have so many perfect executions and I just got harrowed by how much I need to practice to not die over and over and over again. And I'm done playing Katana Zero for the day. Did shit ;_;
A thing about life though is that you're not allowed to take as many chances as you want. That's where luck comes in as pure luck, not as a skill. What other people takes hundreds of tries, efforts and other resources, a heavenly defying luck would only take one chance. We don't have unlimited time and energy so use it wisely. Invest in things which would have tangible results.
I disagree. I don't think people are ever born with 'talent' to do a specific thing (drawing, playing the piano, etc.), although I won't go so far as to say everyone is born inherently equal. We are born with a certain mix of intelligences and may be better at some things than others. The rest will mostly have to do with conditioning--how you are brought up and the people and things you interact with. Although it can be simply said that the both of these things are entirely up to chance, that's a very dangerous line of thought. It's called 'externalism' and can be an extremely nihilistic way of thinking--if you firmly believe everything has already been predestined and you have no way to change anything, you may naturally come to think life has no meaning and stop trying to progress. And from there, it's a dark cycle of thinking 'oh I must be destined for this' and falling further into deprivation. It's many times better to internalize and think luck is a part of skill/knowledge because you can be motivated to continually improve your skill and attribute your success to your efforts. But ofc, the pitfall here is that you can also end up attributing failures due to factors you couldn't have foreseen to your own ability and fall into depression. So you do need to know where to draw the line and keep yourself in a positive state of mind, away from pointless self-blame, but also not attributing all the successes to yourself and all the failures to external factors. The key is to reflect honestly and try to improve. And now this is the toxic nihilism I mentioned. This is NOT TRUE. There won't ever be a point where you will not improve at all, unless you have died. I can say with confidence that even the best prodigies you see out there are where they are because of 1% talent and 99% effort. None of them would be where they are if they relied on talent alone and just eat, sleep, and repeat. If you're not improving, it's because you're not learning the right way, not because you've reached your full potential. To improve, you'll need external feedback such as comparing yourself to others who are better than you or direct feedback from other experts in that field so that you can identify where you're still lacking and then push those boundaries. I firmly believe that geniuses are made, not born.
That is pretty much exactly what I said, so what do you disagree with? Now you are jumping a few bars, I never said that. I clearly said that skill is a factor of talent and effort. Skill is a part of luck because the skill you have help improve your odds when dealing with luck. If the earth were to explode right now, no amount of skill would save you. But if a disaster did happen, depending on your skill your chances to live would be much higher if your skillset matches what you need to live. But nothing is ever guaranteed. Of course there will be a point you reach a limit. That doesn't mean you have no way of improving in other things. But in general, your punch will not block the sun exploding. That's called reality. Okay, so are you saying with enough effort, you can memorize more than a person with photographic memory? And of course effort is important. But you gotta understand, to understand I'll put it in game terms. For every level up you get, you get 1 STR. For every level up a genius gets, they get 5 STR. So sure, if you spend more effort into leveling up you will get more STR. But given same amount of effort, it is guaranteed loss. So if you want to claim a genius who starts out at 5 STR at level 1 and gets to 500 STR at level 100 is 99% effort and 1%, sure, but that is only considering themselves. Since their talent makes up their foundation, compared to others that isn't true. Geniuses are both born and made. You need both to make it work. That said, I think you are misunderstanding something vital. Life isn't a contest of STR. Think of it like this, you can have the best music talent in the world but it means nothing in a world with no music. So someone who has the right skills, with a certain amount of luck can make things turn out different. And talent isn't 1 dimensional either. Someone might have perfect memory, but terrible at putting 2 and 2 together. Even your arguments of people not learning the right way or genius being made not born still admits that its about luck. Skill is simply how you brave that luck. I'll put it to you this way to make you understand better since you seem to be too occupied comparing humans. But say you were born a fish instead of a human. Would you be able to achieve everything you did as a human with effort?