Discussion Opinions on Qidian Mega-merge thread 2.0 - All future Qidian Opinion Threads Will Go Here

I searched your profile image on Google and this thread was the only result lol
Where did you get ti from?

 

I only roughly read it ....
But I can tell you this...
The basic of government is "Land"
And "governor " makes rules and their voice/decisions have great impact on the "Land"
Well, us whom surf for free stuff to kill time will see nature takes its course...
Either qindian achieve what they want?
Or they quite down became normal TL site?
Or A "more" professional company swallow "them"?

Great Job on analysis people...
But I am still rooting for the communities....
It is best for the novel readers/writers and have more opportunities in a community based environment...
Companies tends to be very "connection " base and loves to monopolize....

 

Got it from a Photographer in Hawaii.

The thing is here the basics is profit and everything that affects it. Writing the second part right now.

If you didnt read it yet, check part one for a basic market sizing and revenue model analysis.
http://forum.novelupdates.com/threads/the-nine-cauldrons.4361/page-10#post-2336866

Second part is up on page 3

Hmm, thats your assumption. I donate the translators to help them finish the books I read. Why donate when they have a paid job to translate? Some can have it both ways but i personally see it as either or. Also the numbers from patreon give me a base subscription rate of $5.00, if you think they will charge less than $5.00 be my guess and plug in that number. My guess is that it would be closer to 10 which would double all of my $ figures. I gave conservative estimates.

 

The moment paywall goes up byebye QI. Well they are promising none of it for now but it will come its not just physicible to stay afloat with only ads while paying the tlers. Well im sure they are just waiting for subscription or accounts to enter a certain amount before doint it.... well once payment wall goes into motion i would rather read from aggregates then no choice. Harharhar pirates are we

 

I'm not sure if anybody has already mentioned this, but Qidian has already stated that there likely won't be any paywall this year. At least, according to CKtalon, who talked with them (as he's transferring to there now), they are trying to test other kinds of business models first (he listed a few of them), ones that would allow free readers to still be able to see the content. Of course, Qidian can always go back in its words, but this is at least something, I guess?

Here's the link if anybody's interested:

http://www.wuxiaworld.com/ac-agm-iras-tmw-halting-on-wuxiaworld/

And here's the paragraph, for those lazy fellows:

"Finally, about the rumors about paywalls, during the signing of the contract, I received firm indication that they have no plans of a paywall this year. They have not thought beyond that, but they are exploring various means of monetization that will still allow people to read chapters for free. Future plans include tipping, Patreon-like advanced chapter functionalities, and the possibility of VIP non-ad accounts."

 

I never use QI. I don't really find chinese web novels that interesting anymore. It feels like a rinse and repeat of the same story in a different context. Sometimes, it has the same flow. The only novel I find interesting is Desolate Era and Swallowed Star. I don't know why i go back to it.They have the same writing style as Coiling Dragon, but it just draws me back in. Personally, I find Korean novels more enjoyable.

 

Well they don't "need" to add a exclusive paywall... they just need to take over the crowd funding aspect (aka Patreon) but leave the free chapters per week.

1. GoFundMe "like" Functionality to chip in X dollars amount (ie $80 as a group) to get Chapter XYZ of Novel ZZ Released to the Public. This would cover some of their release cost. (40 for the translators cost and then 40 for the over head etc) (think of it as a goFundMe for a Chapter)
2. GoFundMe "like" Functionality to chip in X dollars amount (ie $75x4=300 as a group) to get more weekly releases for Novel ZZ Released to the Public. This would cover some of their release cost. (40 for the translators cost and then 40 for the over head etc) (think of it as a goFundMe )
3. Patreon like system for Translators where QI takes 3% or 5%. (etc) I think they were wanted this anyway since right now folks have to pay Patreon for this service.

 

Um... isn't that like any other business? As a business goal is to make a profit.

 

That's what I was thinking. To begin with, putting up a paywall would be a somewhat risky move to them. In China, people already had the custom of paying for their chapters. In here, we had it for free all along. Which means that if they do try to issue a paywall, they'll definitely experience a DRASTIC plunge in readers. So, personally, I think it'd be a safer move to try a different business model. But considering Qidian's reputation... well... I can't be sure. I really wish they don't, though, since a bunch of the novels I'm reading are there... and I'm one of those guys who can't part with money no matter what...

On another note, it'd be pretty cool if they opened an international website, not just for translations, but for original stories, just like the original Qidian back in China. That'd be something I'd be hugely interested in, unlikely as it is.

 

It's not unlikely, it's impossible lol. There are already sites for original English stories.

 

How can you read "this year" and think they will not paywall eventually? No idea how CKTalon got that statement out of them, either by simply asking or requesting it as part of his contract, but the fact they felt the need to add such ominous words is clearly indication that they plan to do it eventually.

Qidian have already shown they have no issues going back on their word. Even against WW, they backtracked on their contract and poached translators, something they accused WW of doing not too long ago.

 

I like your analysis. Did your first part include the actual cost for Qidian to produce these chapters and the financial hit QI will take for the novels that are a net loss?

You mention that it only costs QI $40/chapter but if they're requiring translators to produce 5 chapters a week then QI is looking at $800/month for each novel.

On the fly estimate. You said "5k users *$5=25,000. Oh yea, this is per month" and this is best estimates. [$25,000/month]/[$800/month*novel]= ~31 novels. This means that QI has a limit of 31 novels failing before it starts eating into their profits.

Edit: NVM, OP clarified that he was only considering revenue.

 

I'm confused though, probably that's because its a business issue. Well whatever, as long no-one raged in here would be fine, I think.
Anyway,

In case if QI opens up paywall, how are they going to make profits? (I'm still unable to find an answer for it, as I'm not good with business/economics).
After all, in case for JP, they got loads of ways because of that they don't really need paywalls. But for QI it should be different, as they don't have so many different pathways like JPs.

 

I left out the cost portion on purpose. Too many assumptions. I wanted to pound on the revenue side. There's money here and they made it that much harder to get for themselves.

 

No, no. I'm completely aware of that. I'm not supporting Qidian either. I'm just saying it's something.

Oh well. All I mean to say is that there's still a chance, small as it is, that there won't be a paywall (at least in the beginning). I don't even know why I intruded in this discussion in the first place... well, I'll leave you guys to it.

 

Couldnt find this in my other post.
Part 2

*Writing from a American perspective.

I will answer the below questions from the previous post as well as Why Qidan is doing what Qidan is doing.

"*If you noticed, I left out marketing costs, barriers to entry eg; why Qidan is going to run into issues trying to capitalize on going international, other models, and why this is happening. Ill write another post at another time to address those issues."

Before i start, I want you to ask your self. "How am I reading through the forums on Novel Updates?". "How did i get here?". One day did I say, " I'm going to go look up Chinese Novels on google to read". Think about that really slowly.

Here is my guess.
A) You read Manga
B) You Watch/use to watch Anime
C) You probably first started reading JP light novels

You have probably been affiliated or lurked on one or more of the following communities:
Reddit [Manga,Anime,Lightnovels,NovelTranslations] or Animesuki forums, or spcnet.tv forums, or Baka-Tsuki.

My guess is your are between 15 and 30. Am I close? Well, however you got here, you are here and part of a community that is very active(F5 sect) and can be quite lucrative.

tl;dr- You probably started to read Cn novels after reading manga,watching anime, or reading light novels and wanted to find a different kind of character and tropes. You needed something fresh, so you lurked on one of the aforementioned communities until you found your way here on NU based on community posts.

See, the first big issue Qidan is going to run into is "Who are my customers?". "How do I capture my customer market?" Well your customers are people that moved over from various communities related to the Japanese Anime(Manga,lightnovels) industry.
Issues:

1) Very few people look directly for Chinese Novels without going through a community.
2) Growth is dependent on this funnel JP->CN.

Think about it this way, Crunchyroll created a service that was able to capture more than 1 million Subscribers. Do you know why? Because Japanese Anime is an established Multi billion Dollar Self sustaining industry. Do you see a lot of Chinese Weaboos? I dont. (I dont know the chinese version for it the japanese word).

Well, Novel Updates has done lot of the heavy lifting and has brought a lot of Qidans target customers together in one place. Awesome, this should be easy for Qidan right?...well yes and no.

Issue:
1) Qidan poisoned the well. Turned the majority of the community against itself with its Public fight with Wuxiaworld, heavy handed tactics with translators, and deceitful behavior including astro turfing.
2) Its ok, people forget with time, but will this community forget as well?

Either way, Qidan, you messed up here. Its a bad idea to attack the community you want to convert to customers when your future customers are based on suggestions of said community. Especially when you don't have an easy way to get new customers. Ads? Most of us use adblock, and then you run into the issue of educating new customers. Who the heck is Meng Hao? I know who Kirito is though. Pretty high marketing costs...

tl;dr - Qidan had almost zero barriers to entry, and decided they needed a challenge.

Why is Qidan doing what it is doing? They believe they can do it cheaper, on a larger scale, and at a profit. Why did things break down with WW? (Speculation only) Very simple; Patreon and WW showing them their full financials (Hindsight is 20/20) .

*Speculation
Some of the more popular Translators left how much money would be donated to them monthly from their readers visible to the public and they saw how much WW was making. Qidan, proabably, purposefully reneged on their non contractual agreements so they would be free to get easy money without cutting a piece to WuxiaWorld/similar sites. Simple put, easy money, low investment, money tree.

Also note, Qidan is a Chinese company, if you take my previous figures and convert it to Yuan the lowest range to maximum range for potential profit changes to; Lowest $2,05,1430 to $20,514,300. USD->RMB(yuan). Figures based on previous post converted into the correct currency. Healthy little sum of money. I dont know what Qidans balance sheet looks like but an extra 20 million yuan cant hurt.

I hope no one is under the illusion that Qidan will be free. I mean, they have a parent company that expects a return on their investment over and will allow for losses until Qidan figures out the best model to use. which can be months or years, eg they have no obligation to wait till 2018 regardless of what they say. If its not in paper, it means nothing as they have already reneged on 1 verbal agreement. But i doubt they will until the have enough traffic to their site.

I expect one of the following revenue models.
Probably:
Tiered Subscription plan
Pay per Chapter

Only semi free one i can see is some combination of the below. Only works if they have enough traffic.

App tie in with Ads/Videos before a chapter plays and harvesting customer detail to sell, maybe surveys to fill in for chapter points, Ebooks, take part of translators Patreon,Qidan exclusive interviews, Qidan self created donation goal for extra chapters per week, etc (Dont want to give you too many ideas). Maybe they can sell permanant adspace to audible or crunchyroll and make this full circle.

*Correct me if I am wrong, but i think Novel Updates has a policy to not list chapters of books that are behind a paywall. Going to have to pay NU off to continue to list books or forgo the community and just advertise free Chapters on NU to try and capture more customers. Idk but growth seems like will be bit hard
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

tl;dr-i wrote it take sometime to read it. Ask my questions in a post and ill reply when i get to them.

 

Crunchyroll makes $100 million a year in revenue from the 1 million paid subscribers and 20 million free users.
If QI is 3% as big as Crunchyroll with 3% of paid subscribers and 3% of free users, it would generate $3 million a year in revenue.

3% of 1 million paid subscribers is 30,000
3% of 20 million free users is 600,000

 

Seattle...did you read the post. is the Chinese Anime/Manga/Novel industry = to the Japanese Industry? Do you see chinese weeaboos? IS the population NU >1 million? Not attacking you but you seem to think that there is a massive international market for chinese novels...
*edit
Google search puts NU at around 500k unique visitors per month. revise your math.

 

The thing with most of us readers as @Chance said is that we are coming from different types of japanese communities such as anime manga/manhua/manhwa etc.(I for example found about Chinese novels after reading Panlong and discovered people talking in the comments about Coiling Dragon and since then I've been hooked), and all these are available for free. If I want to watch an anime or read a certain manga I can watch it in 5 different places without worry. What I'm saying is that this community is used to getting content for free and when I can watch anime for free who's Qidian to say that I have to pay for anything? I know there is crunchyroll or other official manga sites but let's be honest we usually kiss them goodbye and go for the free stuff. If people can pirate anime I don't believe it is that hard to pirate Qidian novels. Arrrr! It seems I'll have to pick up my rusty hook and become a pirate again!