Mafia Upick Dethy FM - Town Victory

Discussion in 'Community Games' started by Zone Q11, Feb 10, 2021.

Tags:
  1. Svalinn

    Svalinn [IMG][/IMG]

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2018
    Messages:
    98
    Likes Received:
    4,860
    Reading List:
    Link
    yes yes, you were the town paragon of the game, this whole thing would've been naught without you, oh how foolish I was to even question your divine thought process. :blobpopcorn:

    good job, good job, I'll be sure to lick your boots, no lick the very soil you walk upon next time we play.
     
    LiLi041 likes this.
  2. LiLi041

    LiLi041 【Lucky RNG Halo】【Eternal Townie】

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    2,216
    Reading List:
    Link
    IMO, when someone talks about how they couldn't possibly be scum (like when they themselves say it), it seems less credible.
    It has nothing to do with who's the person in question. It's just a question of "is this statement about how you are 100% town coming from you yourself or not"?

    I'm going to ignore the sarcasm. Yes, I was the town paragon, yes, you were foolish~ No, actually you guys could've won without me lol- there's always a chance of winning before parity, with or without analyses and logic~

    Ew gross, no thanks soil-licker.

    Anyways, I got all the negative emotions in my system out after my rant and today's supposed to be a happy day anyway, so I feel totally fine now (not that anyone asked lol)! :blobangel:
     
  3. Svalinn

    Svalinn [IMG][/IMG]

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2018
    Messages:
    98
    Likes Received:
    4,860
    Reading List:
    Link
    so you're eliminating the possibility of cream coming out with the same conclusion that she can't be mafia based on the checks everyone gave out?
    ahh right, I shouldn't question :blob_zipper_mouth:
     
  4. Zone Q11

    Zone Q11 『The Gas Mask』『Monochrome Plebeian』

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2015
    Messages:
    3,000
    Likes Received:
    21,150
    Reading List:
    Link
    (Yeesh. Why the fuck did my comments gain a multiple-paragraph response?)

    I never said your action of analysis was a nuisance. I am saying that the content of said analysis is the nuisance. Don't get me wrong, your analysis/solution is impressive as it comes from someone who never played Dethwing Classic before, but I have already seen the quick and short version of the solution before in the wiki, so when I compared the two, it was inevitable that I prefer the wiki's shorter solution over your long and detailed solution.

    I never said that you were better off by staying silent. I simply prefer a better, and shorter solution.
    FOR FUCK'S SAKE, SINCE WHEN CAN'T I EXPRESS MY OPINION!?
    "Respond if you want to correct me where I'm wrong in my argument"?
    "Zone says that LiLi's analysis was a nuisance"?
    READ MY WORDS STEP BY STEP.
    WHY THE FUCK DID YOU THINK I PUT THOSE STUPID WORDS AT THE END!? It's because I know that my words are harsh, but I don't want to make a fuss about it! You can think all you want about me being the big bad meanie who hurt your oh so precious heart -and I would be fine with it since that's literally what I am in the first place- but you CANNOT tell me that I can't say what I do and don't like!

    "Untrue comment about how I was better off not saying anything"? BRUH. It was NEVER about me saying that you should've stayed silent. What you did with your analysis was fucking great! I only wished that you'd gone immediately straight to "What if X is Mafia" instead of "What if X is Town" because the latter takes SO much time to write, and takes up SO much space!

    Of course my post FROM SPEC CHAT was irrelevant to the game, because it was meant as the thing that I WISHED you players had done. Even if I wished that something happened, that does NOT mean that it will actually happen. It was NOT MEANT to be a message to the LIVING PLAYERS; it was meant to be A GUIDE for FUTURE PLAYERS of this setup; I wanted to share my knowledge and tell y'all how to do it better FOR THE NEXT TIME!
     
    Svalinn likes this.
  5. LiLi041

    LiLi041 【Lucky RNG Halo】【Eternal Townie】

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    2,216
    Reading List:
    Link
    She can? I'm just saying for me personally, it'd seem less credible if she did it herself than if someone else did it.

    My previous question was a build-up for that so~ Ofc my response was long! I'm wordy, no?
     
  6. Zone Q11

    Zone Q11 『The Gas Mask』『Monochrome Plebeian』

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2015
    Messages:
    3,000
    Likes Received:
    21,150
    Reading List:
    Link
    ...ya, I'll blacklist you from my FMs for a week or three. (Not that it'll matter since I won't be hosting any games for a week or four anyway.)
     
  7. LiLi041

    LiLi041 【Lucky RNG Halo】【Eternal Townie】

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    2,216
    Reading List:
    Link
    :blobokhand:

    You can tell me that. And I can also write my rant in return.

    I didn't see that, whoops~ The word "nuisance" (more of a nuisance than a help) was about 20x more striking than the words "in my personal opinion".

    ...That's not the feeling your words were giving off at all >.>

    That wasn't my main point. That's why I didn't write much on the spec chat (I wrote two sentences on it out of my multiple paragraphs...).
    My main point was that you made it seem like you were scolding me for having accomplished nothing, which I believe is untrue.

    If you weren't, my bad. Sorry. Thanks for the guidance, it was great, it was never the problem anyway.
     
  8. LiLi041

    LiLi041 【Lucky RNG Halo】【Eternal Townie】

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    2,216
    Reading List:
    Link
    'Kay~ Blacklist away~ :blobangel:
     
  9. Svalinn

    Svalinn [IMG][/IMG]

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2018
    Messages:
    98
    Likes Received:
    4,860
    Reading List:
    Link
    she can and I don't think it'd be any more credible no matter who said it if the logic was clear cut.
    even hasty was able to conclude that cream wasn't mafia.

    then let's look it this way, would cream be unable to point out that mafia can only be either me or decora?
    even hasty was able to narrow it down to that.

    yes, I'm underestimating hasty so I'm using her as comparison but my bias has nothing to do with the game...

    do you still think that the game could in any way end up in a town loss?
     
    LiLi041 likes this.
  10. LiLi041

    LiLi041 【Lucky RNG Halo】【Eternal Townie】

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    2,216
    Reading List:
    Link
    Yeah, if I think the logic is all there, it'd go fine. Wouldn't prevent my personal feelings of "not credible", and it'd definitely take a while to convince me (as I redo all the logic myself), and even as I was convinced I'd feel paranoid about whether I was being brainwashed or not, but it'd be fine in the end... I think. On my part, I mean.

    Though... didn't Hasty say that after Cream was guaranteed town and you gave your analysis? I remember seeing your red text before seeing her all-caps...

    Yes, loss is always possible! :blobcheeky:
    For example, if I had a brain fart and voted Hasty instead of decora, we could lose~~

    But seriously, yeah, I see your point~

    I just did it first, hmph~ :^)
     
    Svalinn likes this.
  11. Cream

    Cream Cream

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2018
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    5,703
    Reading List:
    Link
    The difference between Lili's method of analysis and the more conventional Dethy method of analysis Svalinn used is that Lili assumes one player as the five different roles while Svalinn assumes the five different players as mafia. What follows is a comparison of Svalinn's and Lili's methods for the current game.
    Svalinn
    I. Premise: Lili is mafia.
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Cream - Checked Svalinn as town. - Sane/Naive
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Naive
    • Decora - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Naive
    Conclusion: This scenario is impossible since we have 2 roles to distribute among 3 people. Therefore premise is invalidated and Lili is town.
    II. Premise: Hasty is mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Sane/Paranoid
    • Cream - Checked Svalinn as town. - Sane/Naive
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Naive
    • Decora - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Naive
    Conclusion: This scenario is impossible since no one can be insane cop. Therefore premise is invalidated and Hasty is town.
    III. Premise: Cream is mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Insane/Naive
    • Decora - Checked Cream as town. - Insane/Naive
    Conclusion: This scenario is impossible since no one can be sane cop. Therefore premise is invalidated and Cream is town.

    IV. Premise: Svalinn is mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Cream - Checked Svalinn as town. - Insane/Naive --> Naive
    • Decora - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Naive --> Sane
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. If Svalinn happens to be mafia, Cream is Naive Cop and Decora is Sane Cop.

    V. Premise: Decora is mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid --> Insane
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Sane/Paranoid --> Paranoid
    • Cream - Checked Svalinn as town. - Sane/Naive
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Naive
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. If Decora happens to be mafia, Lili is Insane Cop and Hasty is Paranoid Cop.
    Lili

    I. Premise: Cream is mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Insane/Naive
    • Decora - Checked Cream as town. - Insane/Naive
    Conclusion: This scenario is impossible because there is no sane cop. Therefore Cream is not mafia.
    II. Premise: Cream is sane cop and checked Svalinn as town, and he is actually town.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid/Mafia --> Insane/Paranoid
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid/Mafia --> Insane/Paranoid
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Naive
    • Decora - Checked Cream as town. - Naive/Mafia --> Mafia
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. If Cream is sane cop, then Decora is mafia.
    III. Premise: Cream is insane cop and checked Svailnn as town when he is actually mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Paranoid
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Paranoid
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Mafia
    • Decora - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Naive
    Conclusion: This scenario is impossible because both Lili and Hasty would have to be paranoid cop. Therefore Cream is not insane cop.

    IV. Premise: Cream is naive cop.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Sane/Paranoid/Mafia --> Insane/Paranoid
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Sane/Paranoid/Mafia --> Insane/Paranoid
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Mafia
    • Decora - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Mafia
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. If Cream is naive cop, then either Svalinn or Decora is mafia.
    IV. Premise: Cream is paranoid cop.
    Conclusion: This scenario is impossible. Therefore Cream is not paranoid cop.

    Comparison
    Svalinn's Grand Conclusion:
    • Lili is town
    • Hasty is town
    • Decora is town
    • If Svalinn is mafia, Cream is Naive Cop and Decora is Sane Cop
    • If Decora is mafia, Lili is Insane Cop and Hasty is Paranoid Cop

    Lili's Grand Conclusion:

    • Cream is town as either sane or naive cop.
    • If Cream is sane cop, Decora is mafia.
    • If Cream is naive cop, Svalinn or Decora is mafia.
    • No world in which Hasty is mafia, so Hasty is town.
    • No world in which Lili is mafia, so Lili is town.
    Therefore

    As you might have noticed, the conclusions are roughly equivalent. Both methods of analysis, when done correctly, are able to conclude that the mafia is between Svalinn and Decora, and in this game, it wouldn't have mattered which method you would have used.

    However, Svalinn's method of analysis has one major advantage over Lili's method of analysis. In this game setup, if someone dies, we are just told if they are mafia or town cop. If they are town cop, we don't know what sort of town cop they are.

    Svalinn's method of analysis assumes different people as mafia as the premise. Lili's method of analysis assumes different roles as the premise.

    In this setup, it is easier to invalidate premises and possibilities to arrive at a singular conclusion rather than try to directly prove that conclusion.

    Because we know someone's alignment upon death, it's easier and more efficient to come to a conclusion under Svalinn's method of analysis.

    Addressing the Counterargument
    One might say that under the previous example, both methods yielded the same results. Therefore, they are roughly equivalent. To disprove that counterargument, I have below an assumption that instead of Decora saying that she greenchecked Cream, she said she greenchecked Lili instead.

    Here is what would follow:
    Counterargument: Svalinn
    I. Premise: Lili is mafia.
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid --> Paranoid
    • Cream - Checked Svalinn as town. - Sane/Naive
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Naive
    • Decora - Checked Lili as town. - Insane/Naive --> Insane
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. Therefore, if Lili is mafia, Hasty is paranoid cop, Decora is insane cop, and Cream/Svalinn are Sane/Naive cop.
    II. Premise: Hasty is mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Sane/Paranoid
    • Cream - Checked Svalinn as town. - Sane/Naive
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Naive
    • Decora - Checked Lili as town. - Sane/Naive
    Conclusion: This scenario is impossible since no one can be insane cop. Therefore premise is invalidated and Hasty is town.
    III. Premise: Cream is mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Insane/Naive --> Naive
    • Decora - Checked Lili as town. - Sane/Naive --> Sane
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. If Cream is mafia, Svalinn is Naive cop, Decora is Sane cop, and Lili/Hasty are Insane/Paranoid.

    IV. Premise: Svalinn is mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Cream - Checked Svalinn as town. - Insane/Naive --> Naive
    • Decora - Checked Lili as town. - Sane/Naive --> Sane
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. If Svalinn happens to be mafia, Cream is Naive Cop, Decora is Sane Cop, and Lili/Hasty are Insane/Paranoid.

    V. Premise: Decora is mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid --> Insane
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Sane/Paranoid --> Paranoid
    • Cream - Checked Svalinn as town. - Sane/Naive
    • Svalinn - Checked Lili as town. - Sane/Naive
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. If Decora happens to be mafia, Lili is Insane Cop, Hasty is Paranoid Cop, and Cream/Svalinn are Sane/Naive.
    Counterargument: Lili

    I. Premise: Cream is mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Insane/Naive --> Naive
    • Decora - Checked Lili as town. - Sane/Naive --> Sane
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. If Cream is mafia, Svalinn is Naive cop, Decora is Sane cop, and Lili/Hasty are Insane/Paranoid cop.
    II. Premise: Cream is sane cop and checked Svalinn as town, and he is actually town.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid/Mafia
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Paranoid/Mafia
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Naive
    • Decora - Checked Lili as town. - Insane/Mafia
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. If Cream is sane cop, Svalinn is naive cop and Lili, Hasty, or Decora can be mafia.
    III. Premise: Cream is insane cop and checked Svalinn as town when he is actually mafia.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Paranoid
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Paranoid
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Mafia
    • Decora - Checked Lili as town. - Sane/Naive
    Conclusion: This scenario is impossible because both Lili and Hasty would have to be paranoid cop. Therefore Cream is not insane cop.

    IV. Premise: Cream is naive cop.
    • Lili - Checked Hasty as mafia. - Insane/Sane/Paranoid/Mafia
    • Hasty - Checked decora as mafia. - Insane/Sane/Paranoid/Mafia
    • Svalinn - Checked Cream as town. - Sane/Mafia
    • Decora - Checked Lili as town. - Insane/Sane/Mafia
    Conclusion: This scenario is possible. If Cream is naive cop, then all four can be mafia.
    IV. Premise: Cream is paranoid cop.
    Conclusion: This scenario is impossible. Therefore Cream is not paranoid cop.

    Counterargument: Comparison

    Svalinn's Grand Conclusion:

    • Hasty is town
    • if Lili is mafia, Hasty is paranoid cop, Decora is insane cop, and Cream/Svalinn are Sane/Naive cop.
    • If Cream is mafia, Svalinn is Naive cop, Decora is Sane cop, and Lili/Hasty are Insane/Paranoid.
    • If Svalinn is mafia, Cream is Naive Cop, Decora is Sane Cop, and Lili/Hasty are Insane/Paranoid.
    • If Decora is mafia, Lili is Insane Cop, Hasty is Paranoid Cop, and Cream/Svalinn are Sane/Naive.
    Lili's Grand Conclusion:

    • If Cream is mafia, Svalinn is Naive cop, Decora is Sane cop, and Lili/Hasty are Insane/Paranoid.
    • If Cream is sane cop, Svalinn is naive cop and Lili, Hasty, or Decora can be mafia.
    • Cream is not insane cop or paranoid cop.
    • If Cream is naive cop, then all four can be mafia.
    Counterargument: Therefore
    In this example, it should be more abundantly clear the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

    It is easier to clear people under Svalinn's method:
    • Under Svalinn's method, he is able to easily conclude that Hasty is cleared as town.
    • Under Lili's method it is easy to make the mistaken conclusion that Hasty can be mafia. Only by being careful and doing a further level of theorizing (that I haven't done here) would Lili be able to conclude that Hasty is in fact cleared as town. The more theorizing one has to do, the more likelihood that one will make an error, especially if you are doing it manually.
    Furthermore, say that Svalinn dies and gets lynched D1.
    • Under Svalinn's method, it's easy to just eliminate the scenario in which Svalinn is mafia.
    • Under Lili's method, she would likely have to re-theorize things, which is more effort.
    TL;DR
    The method of Dethy analysis in which you assume the five players as mafia is superior to the method of Dethy analysis in which you assume one player as the five different roles.

    This is because:

    • Due to the game setup only revealing alignment and not specific roles upon flip, it is easier to negate the premise for the assume-players-as-mafia method of analysis since upon flip, we'll know whether or not they are mafia, but not necessarily their specific role.
    • The assume-players-as-mafia method of analysis ultimately requires less theorizing in the long run, which leads to less chance for human error and incorrect deductions.
    • The assume-players-as-mafia method of analysis is more user-friendly and is able to arrive at the conclusion of who is confirmed town more easily than the other method
     
  12. Cream

    Cream Cream

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2018
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    5,703
    Reading List:
    Link
    Scroll baby scroll!

    Work your finger muscles!

    I didn't put in any spoiler boxes just to agonize everyone!
     
  13. Svalinn

    Svalinn [IMG][/IMG]

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2018
    Messages:
    98
    Likes Received:
    4,860
    Reading List:
    Link
    ahh, yes, TLDR, always assume there'd be one :blob_coffee:(had more trouble finding this blob)
     
    Cream, LiLi041 and Zone Q11 like this.
  14. LiLi041

    LiLi041 【Lucky RNG Halo】【Eternal Townie】

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    2,216
    Reading List:
    Link
    Wow wow! :aww:
    That's a lot!
    I don't think mine was the Dethy's method though :blobsweat:
    Mine was just me making stuff up as I went and going through all possible scenarios
    As in, it was something like 'there are 125 possibilities, let's go through each and every one of them to see where it heads in a logical manner- eliminating as many possibilities as I can along the way but ultimately still going through all of them).

    I'm not going to go through everything especially since I know that if someone had not gotten checked by 2 people and everyone had been checked by one person, I wouldn't even have tried analyzing for the headache, but I would just like to note... I would've run through all the possibilities to the end instead of concluding it at Players A/B/C can be mafia/X cop/Y cop... so I don't think I would've concluded Hasty can be mafia unless there was actually a scenario where Hasty can be mafia. It would have taken a LOT of time though, so Svalinn's method would win time-wise.

    But yep, Svalinn's method was better on the whole! My method wouldn't even have been a thing had decora checked me... since without the conclusion Cream can't be mafia, there is 0 chance I would continue analyzing part 2 lol (too much work :blobcheeky:)

    His was definitely more efficient~
     
    Cream likes this.
  15. LiLi041

    LiLi041 【Lucky RNG Halo】【Eternal Townie】

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    2,216
    Reading List:
    Link
    It's better without spoiler boxes on a laptop screen :blobowoevil_horns::blobowoevil_horns::blobowoevil_horns:
    Less clicking~
     
    Cream likes this.
  16. Zone Q11

    Zone Q11 『The Gas Mask』『Monochrome Plebeian』

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2015
    Messages:
    3,000
    Likes Received:
    21,150
    Reading List:
    Link
    That's... literally... all I wanted to say...
     
    LiLi041 likes this.
  17. Hasty girl

    Hasty girl [Holy Novitiate] [Red Sibling] [Blackjack Sect]

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2020
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    4,229
    Reading List:
    Link
    QAQ
     
    Svalinn likes this.
  18. LiLi041

    LiLi041 【Lucky RNG Halo】【Eternal Townie】

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    2,216
    Reading List:
    Link
    Aw~ :blob_patpat:
     
    Hasty girl likes this.
  19. Ruaan

    Ruaan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2021
    Messages:
    42
    Likes Received:
    2,887
    Reading List:
    Link
    I just scrolled through, who was the mafia? Hasty?
     
  20. LiLi041

    LiLi041 【Lucky RNG Halo】【Eternal Townie】

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    2,216
    Reading List:
    Link
    c.decora